TL; DR
- Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple will assemble 7 to 8 million foldable iPhones in the second half of 2026.
- Only 0.5 to 1 million units are expected in Q3, suggesting limited availability at launch.
- Apple may announce the device in September and begin sales later in Q4, similar to the iPhone X.
Apple’s first foldable iPhone may be one of the company’s most anticipated products in years, but it won’t ship in huge numbers right away. In a new post on X, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple is expected to assemble around 7 to 8 million foldable iPhones during the second half of 2026.
Production will ramp up gradually. Kuo estimates that only 0.5 to 1 million units will be assembled in the third quarter, accounting for roughly 10% of total second-half production. In comparison, Apple is expected to ship 20 to 22 million iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max units during the same quarter.
Apple could repeat its iPhone X launch strategy
According to Kuo, the limited production volume could affect availability. Apple may unveil the foldable iPhone alongside the iPhone 18 lineup in September, while opening pre-orders and sales later in the fourth quarter once inventory improves.
Apple followed a similar approach with the iPhone X. It announced the phone in September 2017, while pre-orders opened in late October before sales began in November.
Kuo also expects demand to remain strong despite the rumored $2,300 to $2,500 price tag. He believes limited supply could push delivery estimates to four to six weeks or longer, while resale prices may temporarily climb well above retail.
Here’s what previous leaks have revealed
While Kuo’s latest post focuses on production, several reliable sources have already revealed a good amount about the hardware.
Apple’s foldable iPhone will feature a 5.3-inch outer display and a 7.6-inch inner display. The inner panel is expected to have an almost invisible crease, with Apple relying on a liquid metal hinge to improve durability and reduce the fold line.
ALSO READ: Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Use a Liquid Metal Hinge
The phone is rumored to measure around 4.5mm when unfolded and roughly 9 to 9.5mm when folded, making it one of the thinnest book-style foldables if those dimensions hold up.
Leaks have also claimed Apple will use a titanium frame with an aluminum alloy chassis. To free up internal space, Apple is reportedly skipping Face ID altogether and bringing back Touch ID, integrated into the power button.
ALSO READ: iPhone 18 Pro Series and Apple’s First Foldable Could Debut on September 8, Says Gurman
Battery capacity has also leaked in recent weeks. Multiple supply chain reports suggest the foldable iPhone could pack a battery of around 5,000 mAh, split into a dual-cell design to fit the thin chassis.
The camera hardware is expected to include two rear cameras and a front-facing camera that works in both folded and unfolded modes. Apple is also expected to equip the device with the A20 Pro chipset, which will also power Siri AI and Apple Intelligence features.
A cautious first year
Kuo says it will take until late 2026 or early 2027 before the market gets a clearer picture of long-term demand. By then, production should be running at full speed and the initial launch rush will have settled.
ALSO READ: Apple’s First Foldable iPhone Still Expected in 2026, Launch Window Said to Remain Unchanged
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